As expectations for a US interest rate hike are already fully priced in, global markets remain under pressure until the decision is officially announced, with major indices around the world trading in the red.
In the A-share market on September 15, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly lower and fluctuated throughout the session. It briefly turned positive in early trading while attempting to challenge the 3900-point mark, but failed and subsequently fell, bringing the index back near its previous low. The Shenzhen Component Index also gave up early gains and closed lower, with its center of gravity further declining. In contrast, the STAR 50 Index rebounded amid a recovery in the semiconductor sector, surging more than 3% intraday before meeting heavier selling pressure near the 10-day moving average, which narrowed its gains by the close.
By the end of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index settled at 3864.28 points, down 0.54%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13287.97 points, down 0.72%; the ChiNext Index fell 1.15% to 3247.92 points; and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.55% to 1551.96 points. Trading volume continued to shrink, with total turnover across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges standing at only 1.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 100 billion yuan compared with the previous session.
Sector-wise, glass fiber, wind power equipment, electronic chemicals, and semiconductors rebounded against the market trend. On the losing side, tourism, planting, hotel and catering, and ground force equipment sectors led the declines. In terms of individual stocks, more than 1,100 stocks managed to rise despite the overall weakness, while nearly 4,400 stocks fell, indicating a broad-based decline across the market.
Beyond overseas uncertainties and shrinking trading volumes, several other factors deserve attention. First, certain previously hot sectors have accumulated notable gains, creating profit-taking pressure, and the concentrated pullback in high-flying stocks has had a negative feedback effect on short-term sentiment. Second, the market is currently in a gap period between major meetings and policy expectations, with no surprise signals released from domestic policymakers, leaving the market without a clear leading theme. Third, at the micro-liquidity level, there are some disruptions, as small-cap and micro-cap stocks have experienced greater volatility, further curbing the recovery of risk appetite.
Can A-shares stage a comeback after this persistent weakness? Yang Changlong, senior investment consultant at Jufu Investment, said in an interview that at present, a confluence of multiple conditions is needed. First, overseas pressures need to ease further, especially if the Fed delivers a dovish signal at its meeting. Second, domestic policy expectations need to improve to form new catalysts. Third, trading volume needs to expand on a sustained basis, showing that incremental capital is willing to enter the market. A market upturn requires the resonance of multiple signals, and the market is currently waiting for these signals to gradually become clearer. Looking ahead, short-term market volatility and divergence are likely to persist, with the index level expected to remain in weak consolidation.