On September 14, global gold markets saw a notable rebound last Friday, with international bullion surging nearly 2% to a peak of $4,402 per ounce before closing up 0.74% at $4,348. Despite the weekly decline still hovering around 1.8%, this rapid recovery quickly captured market attention.

Meanwhile, the latest U.S. inflation figures have significantly strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week. Combined with ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher, the outlook for the Fed's rate path has become increasingly murky.

Entering this week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, with traders judging whether gold has formed a technical bottom after its recent pullback. On Monday, during early Asian trading on September 14, gold opened slightly lower before ticking up, currently trading near $4,350, down about 0.2%. With numerous variables and a complex market landscape this week, caution is paramount in any positioning.

There are two core focal points for the week's price action: first, the Fed's rate decision. Following last week's CPI data release, markets raised the probability of a rate hike at this week's meeting, and it is precisely this expectation that capped the bullish momentum in gold and silver at the end of last week. The current market tone is weak, maintaining a sideways pattern, with Friday's Fed rate decision being the week's most significant event.

Second, shifts in geopolitical conditions. Middle East tensions remain elevated; if the conflict escalates further, oil prices will continue to climb, reinforcing rate hike expectations and pressuring gold prices downward. Conversely, if tensions ease and oil retreats, inflation concerns could cool, reducing rate hike bets and potentially allowing gold to embark on a sustained rally.

Simply put, it is these two major uncertainties that keep gold's trajectory this week highly unpredictable. Prices are likely to oscillate back and forth, with choppy, range-bound trading. However, since the broader consolidation range has not yet been breached, a range-based approach for the early part of the week seems prudent. The key band to watch is $4,280 to $4,500; unless this zone is convincingly broken, expectations for larger directional moves should be kept in check. For intraday trades, the short-term range is seen between $4,320 and $4,370, favoring a strategy of selling into strength and buying on dips.

All told, last Friday's robust rebound was not driven by a single factor but was the product of inflation data, geopolitical risk, and shifting market sentiment. Higher U.S. August CPI lifted rate hike expectations, which is inherently bearish for gold. Meanwhile, Middle East-driven oil price increases feed into inflation and elevate interest rate outlooks, acting as a primary headwind for bullion. Some traders believe a short-term bottom is in place, but whether it can evolve into a medium-term uptrend will hinge on the Fed's decision and commentary this week, as well as the subsequent path of Middle East developments.

Under the current core logic: sustained Middle East tensions will push oil higher, reinforce rate hike bets, and weigh on gold; once tensions subside, oil retreats, easing inflation pressure, and cooling rate expectations, making it easier for gold to rally. Gold carries dual attributes as both a commodity and a currency, and its volatility has expanded notably at present. As market participants track the Fed's rate trajectory, it is essential to monitor how geopolitical events influence energy prices and, in turn, inflation expectations.

With the policy window now open, gold price swings are likely to intensify further, and any news from the Middle East could directly dictate short-term direction. This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk.