Bernstein analysts suggest that Brent crude could climb to a range of $120 to $150 per barrel, as crude supply from the Middle East remains below pre-conflict levels and the market faces a persistent supply shortfall. In a September 14 report, analysts including Neil Beveridge and Brian Ho noted that their previous forecast of $90 per barrel for Brent in 2026 has been "overtaken by actual events," with risks leaning toward further upside. They added that "the scope for de-escalation appears limited in the near term."

Currently, total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal remain below 7 million barrels per day, compared to roughly 20 million barrels per day before the conflict. In the United States, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could reach the so-called mandated minimum of 252 million barrels by the end of September. While a theoretical lower limit of 70 million barrels exists, which might allow for a further reduction of 180 million barrels, the country is "approaching the limits of its strategic reserve."

This undersupply scenario underscores the fragility of global oil markets, with geopolitical tensions compounding structural deficits. The analysts emphasize that any meaningful price relief is unlikely without a substantial restoration of Middle Eastern supply, a development that appears distant under current conditions.