Delivery timelines for the iPhone 18 Pro series have shown a notable lengthening during the middle of its opening sales week, aligning closely with figures from the same period a year ago. This development is helping to dissipate earlier concerns about weakening demand for the new devices.

According to a product availability tracking report from J.P. Morgan released on September 17th, the worldwide average shipping estimates for the Apple iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max have expanded by 12 days and 7 days, respectively, between the September 12th pre-order launch and the mid-week check on September 16th. The delivery wait time for the Pro Max model now mirrors the iPhone 17 cycle from last year, while the Pro variant has also significantly narrowed the gap with its predecessor's timeline.

J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee suggests that the initially shorter delivery estimates at the start of sales were a result of concentrating the first batch of inventory on premium models, rather than a sign of tepid demand. The subsequent extension of wait times aligns with the expected pace of inventory being absorbed by consumer orders. As of September 16th, Apple's share price stood at $332.41, with J.P. Morgan maintaining an "Overweight" rating on the stock.

Delivery Time Expansion Outpaces Last Year

J.P. Morgan’s data reveals that within the four days following the pre-order launch, the delivery estimates for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max expanded by 12 days and 7 days, respectively. This increase is noticeably steeper than the 5-day and 2-day expansions observed for the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max during the same timeframe in the previous year.

On an absolute level, as of the mid-week check on September 16th, the global average home delivery estimates for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max are 19 days and 26 days. During the same period a year earlier, the corresponding figures for the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max were 20 days and 26 days, indicating that the current numbers are broadly in line.

Furthermore, the significant disparity in delivery estimates between different color options during the initial pre-order phase has largely disappeared. Earlier in the week, certain colors like Glacier, Silver, and Black Pro were available for delivery on the official launch date of September 18th in the United States, while other colors required longer waits. However, by the mid-week check, all colors across every market tracked by J.P. Morgan showed identical shipping windows.

US and European Markets Show Slight Year-Over-Year Lead

In the US market, the delivery estimates for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max are 17 days and 24 days, up from 2 days and 22 days on the first day of pre-orders. These figures also slightly exceed the 16 days and 23 days recorded for the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max last year. The United States accounts for approximately 34% of iPhone global shipments. For in-store pickup, all color variants of the 18 Pro are available for same-day collection on September 18th, whereas the 18 Pro Max currently has no in-store pickup options.

In Europe, delivery estimates for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max in Germany have risen to 18 days and 25 days, which is higher than last year's 16 days and 24 days, giving it a slight lead. In the United Kingdom, the two models show delivery estimates of 17 days and 24 days, consistent with the same period last year. Germany and the UK comprise roughly 3% and 4% of iPhone global shipments, respectively.

China Remains the Most Significant Year-Over-Year Shortfall

Among all tracked regions, China currently displays the most substantial year-over-year gap. As of September 16th, the delivery estimates for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max in China are 25 days and 29 days, respectively. Although these figures have expanded from the 13 days and 21 days seen on the first day of pre-orders, they are still significantly lower than the 32-day estimates for both the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max during the same period last year.

For store pickup, neither the 18 Pro nor the 18 Pro Max is available for in-store collection in China. The Chinese market accounts for approximately 19% of iPhone global shipments. J.P. Morgan notes that while the year-over-year disparity in China has narrowed from the initial week, it remains a primary concern in the current demand tracking.

iPhone Duo Pre-Orders Expected on October 16th

In its report, J.P. Morgan mentions that the Duo model within the iPhone 18 series is slated to begin pre-orders on October 16th. This model has not yet been included in the current delivery estimate tracking. The existing data primarily reflects the market demand for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max models.

J.P. Morgan has stated it will continue to monitor delivery estimates across various regions to assess the overall demand trajectory for the iPhone 18 series.