Deep Discount Fails to Halt Debut Slide: What Does LONGSYS's H-Share Listing Signal?

Deep News
Sep 11

Even a steep valuation gap couldn't prevent a first-day drop for memory module leader LONGSYS, which raised HK$7.08 billion through its Hong Kong listing on September 8, completing its A+H dual listing. The IPO stunned the market with a striking set of contrasts: its interim profit skyrocketed from just RMB 14.76 million a year earlier to RMB 10.5 billion this year—a 715-fold surge that leads the tech sector—while the H-share offer price of HK$236 (roughly RMB 204) represented a discount of over 40% to its A-shares.

Despite strong demand, including a 40.32x oversubscription for the Hong Kong public offering and backing from industrial giants like Lenovo and Transsion, the H-shares broke below their issue price on day one. By Friday's close, the stock had fallen to HK$204, down 14%, dragging A-shares down in tandem and bringing the two listings' prices nearly to parity with each other.

This year, A+H listings have dominated Hong Kong's IPO market. Among the 112 main-board new listings through early September, 33 were A+H deals, collectively raising HK$232.18 billion—about 70% of total IPO proceeds. Hard-tech names have been the core drivers, with major projects from Zhongji Innolight, Luxshare Precision, Victory Giant Technology, Montage Technology, and LONGSYS underpinning the primary market.

All of this year's A+H tech leaders have benefited from the AI boom, with earnings rising sharply, yet their growth engines differ fundamentally. Zhongji Innolight, the global optical module leader, posted first-half profits of RMB 13.651 billion, up 241.70% year-over-year, with revenue already exceeding last year's total. Its H-shares were priced at HK$980, a modest 3% discount to A-shares, raising HK$53.4 billion—this year's largest Hong Kong IPO. After a brief dip on debut, the stock has climbed to HK$1,161, an 18% gain. While its public offering was 16.84x oversubscribed versus LONGSYS's 40.32x, Zhongji Innolight's international placement was 9.73x oversubscribed with six-month lock-ups, featuring cornerstone investors like Temasek, BlackRock, ADIA, Hillhouse, Tencent, and Alibaba—far exceeding LONGSYS's 3.88x. These backers are betting not just on near-term profit growth but on sustained order flow from global cloud giants for AI infrastructure.

Similarly, Victory Giant Technology, a leading PCB maker for AI computing, listed in Hong Kong in April at HK$209.88 per share, a 46% discount to A-shares—even steeper than LONGSYS's—yet surged 50.09% on its first day of trading. Cross-border consumer electronics leader Anker Innovations listed on July 2 at HK$99.32, a 26% discount, dipped briefly, then rallied steadily; despite a recent pullback, it closed Friday at HK$121, up 22% from the issue price.

In contrast, LONGSYS boasts the most explosive earnings growth, but its profit stream is heavily cyclical. During the current memory upcycle, the company locked in large inventories of wafers at low prices. Its interim report shows inventories of RMB 25.777 billion—60.12% of total assets (RMB 42.877 billion) and 1.4x net assets (RMB 18.583 billion)—with inventory turnover at a lengthy 340.52 days, indicating mostly low-cost stockpiles from earlier. Meanwhile, operating cash flow was negative RMB 3.151 billion, meaning the soaring profits haven't translated into actual cash and are instead tied up in inventory. Should global memory supply-demand dynamics shift and product prices fall while raw material costs rise, profits could contract quickly. The 715-fold net income increase is more a cyclical tailwind than sustainable growth driven by internal tech innovation or long-term orders.

Moreover, fellow memory players like CXMT, a DRAM maker, and upcoming NAND maker YMTC both hold pricing power as manufacturers. LONGSYS, by contrast, sits in the midstream as a packaging and module house without such influence. Simply put, it profits from intermediation—which likely explains its low P/E of just 7.4x and persistent decline.

Looking at the global memory giants—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—they all possess HBM technical leadership and long-term supply agreements, using "technology generations plus high-end product mix" to weather downturns. Even so, after big annual gains, these stocks have stalled since July: SK Hynix rose just ~8% in Q3, Samsung ~3%, and Micron fell ~15%. Likewise, among the ten most corrected A-share tech stocks, five are from the memory sector: Biwin Storage fell 59.8% from 517 to 213 yuan, Demaili dropped 59% from 980 to 402 yuan, Puya Semiconductor declined 57.4% from 910 to 388 yuan, GigaDevice slid 56.1% from 846.66 to 371.32 yuan, and LONGSYS retreated 54.3% from 749.88 to 339.55 yuan.

LONGSYS's deep-discount H-share debut failure, combined with pullbacks in indices like the STAR 50, sends two crucial signals to A-share tech investors.

First, high growth rates in tech demand strict differentiation between "cyclical pulses" and "long-term growth"—temporary cyclical dividends shouldn't be mistaken for perpetual expansion. Within the AI sector, sub-industries' growth characteristics diverge sharply. Optical modules and AI circuit boards, as infrastructure hardware, benefit from sustained global capex expansion with durable order visibility. Memory, however, is a classic cyclical tech segment with highly volatile earnings.

Second, as A+H listings accelerate, valuations in the A-share market are converging with global pricing logic. High-growth tech stocks will increasingly face independent scrutiny from international capital. With 33 A+H firms now trading in Hong Kong, observing which names still struggle despite deep discounts—and which hold up even amid market corrections—offers an important benchmark for A-share investors.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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