Based on DCE opening prices from September 15, 2026, Brazilian soybean November 2026 CNF vessel quotes were reported at 312 cents per bushel on September 14. Brazilian soybean quotes for February through July 2027 vessels ranged between 115 and 162 cents per bushel across the various delivery months.

Where production trends stand

The NOAA CPC 6-10 day outlook for September 20-24 indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures across US soybean and corn belt regions, with limited signals for below-normal precipitation. According to USDA primary state statistics, 100% of major soybean and corn producing states are expected to see warmer conditions, while only 11% of these areas are projected to experience below-normal rainfall. A storm system and its associated cold front departing the northwestern interior may bring scattered frost to the northern plains, while heavy precipitation will shift eastward. Parts of the northern and central plains could receive 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next five days, with totals of 2 to 6 inches or more possible in the northern Midwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected to concentrate over Iowa and surrounding states, potentially triggering flood conditions.

Global market signals

USDA reported that US soybean crop conditions remained stable at 58% good-to-excellent for the week ending September 13, unchanged from the prior week but below the 63% recorded a year earlier. Illinois held steady at 57% week-over-week, while Iowa slipped slightly from 75% to 74% and Minnesota improved modestly from 56% to 57%. US soybean export inspections totaled 672,800 metric tons for the week ending September 10, up from a revised 464,700 tons the previous week. This compares with 822,700 tons during the same week last year. Cumulative inspections for the crop year stand at 914,800 tons, versus 1.0865 million tons at this point last season. Shipments to mainland China accounted for 328,200 tons, representing 48.79% of the weekly total, a significant jump from zero the prior week.

The National Oilseed Processors Association will release August crush data at 11:00 AM Central Time Tuesday. Analysts project August soybean crush among NOPA members at 211.553 million bushels, down 2.4% from July's 216.647 million but up 11.5% year-over-year. Soybean oil inventories are expected to reach 1.260 billion pounds, lower than July's 1.360 billion but above the 1.245 billion pounds recorded in August 2025.

USDA also reported that 6% of the US soybean crop has been harvested as of September 13, exceeding market expectations of 4% and ahead of last year's 5% and the five-year average of 3%. In Brazil, AgRural noted that 2026/27 soybean planting had reached 0.4% by September 10, up from 0.05% a week earlier and 0.1% a year ago. Paraná leads planting progress, while Mato Grosso has also initiated seeding operations, beginning with irrigated fields and expanding into some non-irrigated areas where rainfall supports machinery access.

Cost and supply chain pressures

USDA reported that average fuel surcharges for grain rail transportation in the second week of September rose to 48 cents per railcar per mile, a 153% increase from the weighted average a year earlier. Fuel surcharges for US grain rail shipments have more than doubled over the past year, raising transportation costs across agricultural regions at a time when many farmers are already facing rising production expenses. Meanwhile, APK-Inform raised its 2026 sunflower seed production forecast for Ukraine to 13.6 million tons, up from a previous 13.48 million tons, but lowered sunflower oil production expectations to 5.73 million tons from 5.84 million tons. Export forecasts for 2026/27 sunflower oil were trimmed slightly to 5.28 million tons, while soybean production expectations were cut to 5.22 million tons from a previous 5.73 million tons.

Malaysia's Islamic Bank research indicates that crude palm oil prices are expected to hold at current elevated levels over the next three months. While seasonal production peaks and high inventories may limit upside, lingering effects of El Ni帽o could tighten regional supply, potentially keeping prices firm through 2027. The bank maintained its price forecasts for crude palm oil at 4,400 ringgit and 4,500 ringgit per ton for 2026 and 2027 respectively, with upside risks to these projections.

Domestic trading activity

Soybean meal transactions among major domestic crushers reached 342,800 tons on September 14, up 136,500 tons from the previous day. This included 199,800 tons of spot sales, an increase of 123,500 tons, and 143,000 tons of forward basis trading, up 13,000 tons. National crusher utilization rose to 63.92%, up 2.40 percentage points from the prior day.

Soybean oil transactions at key domestic crushers totaled 5,700 tons on September 14, down 4,300 tons or 43% day-over-day, including 4,700 tons of spot sales and 1,000 tons of forward contracts. Palm oil transactions reached just 300 tons, down 300 tons or 50% from the previous session.

As of September 11, commercial palm oil inventories in key domestic regions stood at 939,700 tons, up 37,600 tons or 4.17% from the prior week and 298,200 tons or 46.48% higher year-over-year. Soybean oil commercial inventories reached 1.4944 million tons, up 34,900 tons or 2.39% week-over-week and 28,400 tons or 1.94% higher compared to the same period last year.

Macroeconomic factors

According to CME FedWatch data as of September 15, markets assign a 7.6% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady in September and a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike. For October, the probability of unchanged rates stands at 4%, with a 52% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point increase and 44% odds of a 50 basis point cumulative hike. A Reuters poll of 51 economists found 48 expecting Brazil's central bank to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% on September 16, while three anticipate no change. Brazil's 12-month inflation expectation ticked up to 4.65% from 4.60% previously. China's August M2 money supply grew 7.5% year-over-year, slightly below the 7.6% expected and down from 7.7% in July.

Price indicators

Canadian canola C&F prices for November shipment were quoted at $665 per metric ton on September 14, down $16 from the prior session, while January shipment prices fell $16 to $672 per ton. US Gulf soybean C&F prices for November shipment declined $12 to $601 per metric ton, with US West Coast prices at $596 and Brazilian November shipment prices at $591, each down $12 from the previous day. Imported soybean basis quotes remained flat on September 14, with Gulf ports at 338 cents per bushel for November shipment, US West Coast at 325 cents, and Brazilian ports at 312 cents per bushel.