Option Focus | Coinbase's Bull Call Spread Targets $200-$202.50 by 2026 Despite 10% Drop, Signaling Constructive Upside Bets

Option Witch
6 hours ago

In the latest session, Coinbase Global closed at $172.11, down 10.10%. Despite the sharp single-day pullback, options activity showed a notable exception to bearish flow: one large bullish call spread was put on for $48,100 net debit, positioning for upside toward the $200.00-$202.50 area by September 2026.

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Options Indicators

COIN’s implied volatility stands at 69.64%, while its IV percentile is 36.65%, which places current volatility in a broadly neutral zone rather than an elevated one. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.81 suggests implied volatility is running below historical realized volatility, indicating options are not being priced aggressively relative to the stock’s recent actual movement. Overall, COIN’s options appear fairly valued to slightly cheap, rather than richly priced. The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.91.

Large Trades

A bullish call spread put on for $48,100 net debit was the standout large trade in COIN, built by buying the 2026-09-18 $200.00 calls and selling the 2026-09-18 $202.50 calls in the same 1,924-contract size. With both strikes above the $172.11 reference share price, both legs were out of the money, making this a defined-risk upside structure rather than an immediate intrinsic-value position. The trader paid a net debit to position for a moderate advance toward the $200.00-$202.50 area by expiration, which signals a directional bullish bet while capping upside in exchange for lowering entry cost versus an outright long call.

Overall, the large-trade flow in COIN leaned clearly bullish. The fact that the session’s only highlighted block was a debit-funded bull call spread suggests traders were willing to spend premium for upside exposure, but in a disciplined, risk-defined way rather than chasing unlimited convexity. That combination points to constructive sentiment on COIN, with expectations for gains over time but within a targeted range rather than an aggressive moonshot scenario.

Strategy Reference

For traders sharing the constructive view but seeking a lower premium outlay or defined risk, a bull put spread using a short OTM put strike such as the September 2026 $140.00 put against a long $130.00 put could align with the upside bias while maintaining a statistically lower assignment probability than selling a naked put alone.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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