A Bloomberg survey's median projection indicates that financial markets expect South Korea's central bank to raise its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% during the fourth quarter. Furthermore, the market anticipates an additional 25 basis point hike in the second quarter of 2027, which would bring the policy rate to 3.50%.

The forecast for South Korea's real GDP growth in 2026 was revised upward to 3.4% year-on-year, up from the previous estimate of 3.3%. Similarly, the projection for 2027 GDP growth was lifted to 2.5%, compared to the earlier forecast of 2.3%. The outlook for the consumer price index (CPI) in 2026 remained unchanged at 2.7%.

Regarding trade, the export growth forecast for 2026 was maintained at 9.2%, while the projection for 2027 was upgraded to 4.5%, a notable increase from the previous estimate of 3.4%.

According to Chong Hoon Park at Standard Chartered, the ongoing semiconductor boom continues to bolster household incomes, consumption, and public finances, thereby supporting an acceleration in monetary tightening. However, inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and tighter global financial conditions pose a limiting factor to the pace of policy normalization. The survey was conducted between September 8 and September 14.