Citigroup has released a research report forecasting that mainland China's new energy vehicle (NEV) domestic retail sales for September 2026 will decline 14% year-on-year but rise 13% month-on-month.

According to dealer checks, during the second week of September (September 7-13), overall electric vehicle (EV) orders rose 32% week-on-week, increased 29% month-to-date, and fell 16% month-to-date year-on-year. The bank noted that since August 2026 NEV retail sales in China only rose 6.2% month-on-month (equivalent to 0.5 times the 12.3% month-on-month increase in August 2025), this year's demand has been relatively weak. As a result, the bank expects the full-month September order and retail growth rates will likely be lower than those seen in September 2025.

However, month-to-date EV orders have already climbed 11% in September, leading Citigroup to anticipate that full-month mainland China NEV retail sales will gradually improve to a 13% month-on-month increase (equivalent to 0.75 times the September 2025 month-on-month growth rate). This corresponds to approximately 1.1 million units (Citigroup forecast), implying an 12.8% year-on-year decline for the first nine months of 2026. For the third quarter alone, the bank estimates around 3 million units, projecting a 9.7% sequential increase and a 10.8% year-on-year decrease.

By brand last week, LI AUTO-W (02015), Tesla, BYD COMPANY (01211), and Geely Galaxy outperformed the industry average month-to-date, rising 71%, 23%, 20%, and 14%, respectively. This outperformance was driven by new model launches (the new Li MEGA, BYD Sealion 08, and Galaxy TT) as well as Tesla's limited-time purchase incentives.

The bank maintains "Buy" ratings on Byd Company Limited, CHERY AUTO (09973), GEELY AUTO (00175), and Leap Motor (09863).