CICC has released a research report indicating that it was invited to participate in NEWBORNTOWN's (09911) inaugural Investor Day on September 10, where the company's management and product leaders provided a comprehensive summary and outlook on the overall strategy and core business operations. The firm has maintained its Non-IFRS earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027, along with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HK$14.5, which corresponds to 12 times the 2026 Non-IFRS price-to-earnings ratio and implies a 55% upside from current levels.
The stock is currently trading at 8 times and 7 times the 2025 and 2026 Non-IFRS P/E ratios, respectively. CICC's primary viewpoints are as follows:
Product Strategy and Organizational Platformization: Matrix Replication and Capability Consolidation
The company anticipates that its social business monthly recurring revenue will maintain robust growth momentum over the next 3-5 years. It has already established more than ten product lines, with mature products delivering stable profits, growth-stage products like SUGO and TopTop driving expansion, and new products in the incubation phase showing promising potential. Among these, one product has already surpassed US$10 million in monthly revenue, while two others have each exceeded US$3 million in monthly revenue. The company plans to launch and test 3-5 new products annually. In 2025, the organizational structure was adjusted to a "project + platform" model, facilitating the consolidation of business experience and talent functions into the organizational middle platform. CICC suggests monitoring the efficiency of reuse, per-unit customer acquisition and operational costs, as well as the marginal contribution of AI tools to profit margins.
SUGO and TopTop Enter Global Scale-Up Phase
CICC believes that middle-platform support, localized operations, and the strengthening of user acquisition growth engines are expected to further enhance the cross-regional replication efficiency of mature products. The company currently operates more than 20 global operations centers. SUGO serves as the most critical growth engine at present, achieving balanced global development while balancing growth and profitability, with monthly revenue exceeding US$40 million and MAU approaching 10 million. As regional expansion extends into Spanish-speaking populations and Europe, coupled with the continuous refinement of standard operating procedures, the company aims to double this product's performance over the next 2-3 years. TopTop's MAU exceeds 4 million, with non-MENA markets contributing 40% of revenue. This product's short-term profitability is affected by newly opened regions, and CICC recommends monitoring payback periods and steady-state profits following regional expansions.
AI Applications and Vertical Scenario Integration Accelerate
Playlet leverages AI to enhance short-drama production capacity, while casual games utilize AI to reduce demo development and trial-and-error costs. The standalone product Aippy, positioned as an AI-native interactive content platform, has reached nearly 2 million MAU since launching growth initiatives in November 2025. While monetization has not yet been scaled, the team remains lean with just over 20 employees, supplemented by multiple AI agents, keeping trial-and-error costs manageable. CICC recommends paying attention to AI implementation milestones and monetization inflection points across social networking, interactive content, gaming, and short-drama verticals.