Starting in early September 2026, the new corn harvest in the North China and Huang-Huai region entered the market in large volumes, accelerating supply and driving prices down faster than anticipated. This price advantage is moving through central China and the southwest, extending towards the southeast coast, and putting pressure on corn prices in the northeastern and northwestern producing areas. With farmers showing a strong willingness to sell and buyers in consuming regions adopting a cautious stance, the national average corn price still has room to fall by more than 50 yuan per ton around the National Day holiday.

Since early September, farmers across Henan, central and southern Shandong, and southern Hebei and Shanxi have started their autumn harvest, boosting fresh market supply. Feedback from the ground suggests the new North China corn is of solid quality, with bulk density generally exceeding 710g/L and moldy kernels accounting for less than 2% of the crop, performing better than last year and posing no widespread quality concerns. In response to this increased supply, local purchasing prices for new corn in North China have been declining, with 15% moisture corn in southern Henan dropping from 1.06-1.07 yuan per catty to 0.95-0.98 yuan per catty. By September 15th, ex-warehouse prices for cleaned corn in southern Henan were quoted at 1.02-1.04 yuan per catty.

The impact of these falling prices is spreading rapidly through distribution channels, moving from the North China production area to consuming markets in central China, the southwest, and the southeast coast, eventually directly weighing on prices for new corn in the northeast and northwest. With early-maturing spring corn and garlic-rotation corn in North China already flooding the market, and stocks from the previous season higher than usual, supply is plentiful, even with the peak summer corn harvest still a couple of weeks away. Favorable sunny weather during harvest has also created ideal drying conditions, with no widespread lodging or mold, setting the stage for good quality and high yields.

Farmers are not holding back their sales this year. The good weather has minimized quality issues like mold and sprouting, removing the incentive to wait for better prices. Having seen prices fall steadily after last year's new crop listing, growers are now less confident in holding onto their grain and prefer to sell immediately after harvest to secure their profits, significantly speeding up the flow of supply to the market. Trading companies, meanwhile, hold bearish views on the future and are not actively building inventory, adding to the available supply. Deep-processing enterprises are seeing consistently high truck arrivals, with some leading companies in Shandong receiving over 1,000 vehicles per day, far exceeding last year's numbers. This concentrated release of supply has triggered a rapid price downturn for new corn in North China.

Importantly, the overall quality of the new North China corn is excellent, with high bulk density and low mold counts, making it suitable for most feed producers. This has widened its distribution radius considerably, meaning it is no longer just consumed locally. The price advantage of this corn is now disrupting the previous price balance between the north and south, with its influence gradually extending through central China, the southwest, and the southeast coast to cover all major consuming regions.

In central China, the first stop for North China corn moving south, feed enterprises in Henan and Hubei have begun purchasing the surrounding new crop in large volumes. Corn transaction prices in these areas have been the first to soften. For instance, the delivered price for North China corn at a feed mill in Wuhan, Hubei, is 2,320 yuan per ton, nearly 80 yuan per ton cheaper than northeastern corn delivered in early September, breaking a price firmness that had held for nearly a month.

Despite the distance, the price advantage of North China corn is also competitive in the southwest. Shanxi corn is currently priced at 2,380-2,400 yuan per ton in Sichuan, over 100 yuan per ton lower than northeastern corn. Some large feed enterprises in the southwest are adjusting their procurement plans to include North China corn, making traditional northeastern and Xinjiang supplies less competitive. This opens the door for lower corn prices in the southwest market. The southeast coast, a traditional stronghold for northeastern corn, is still in a wait-and-see mode, with feed companies holding off on major purchasing changes until the new northeastern crop hits the market. However, the cost-effectiveness of shipping North China corn south by sea is already evident, with quotes at Guangdong's Shekou port at 2,370 yuan per ton, about 30 yuan per ton lower than northeastern corn. While northern ports have recently lowered their purchasing prices for the new crop, which may limit the actual impact in the southeast, the North China price continues to be a key constraint on northeastern corn, making lower prices in consuming regions highly probable.

The current quiet trading conditions in consuming areas are essentially a temporary buffer during the transition from old to new crop supplies. Around the National Day holiday, the volume of new grain from northern production areas will increase further, and the market will fully complete its price adjustment from old to new stock. At that point, new corn from North China and the northeast will dominate the market, and downstream buyers will shift their purchasing entirely to the cheaper new crop, triggering a broad price decline across the nation.

Considering new production costs, cross-regional logistics, and current price levels, the national average corn price is expected to drop by more than 50 yuan per ton from current levels around the National Day holiday. In North China, mainstream dried corn transaction prices are likely to fall to a range of 2,050-2,150 yuan per ton, while northeastern prices may decline to 2,000-2,100 yuan per ton. In the southeast, mainstream corn prices at Guangdong ports could retreat to 2,300-2,350 yuan per ton, marking a full price reconfiguration for the new corn season.