Early trading on September 14 sees the gold market unfolding with a weak-to-sideways bias, as bulls and bears remain locked in a tug-of-war. Domestic spot gold opened at 937.6 yuan per gram, dipping to an intraday low of 932.46 yuan per gram before settling near 936.24 yuan per gram around 07:34, marking a modest decline of 0.16%. Meanwhile, international spot gold hovered around the $4,340 per ounce mark during early Asian hours, following Friday's close at $4,348 per ounce.

The bearish pressures weighing on gold are multifaceted. Expectations for a U.S. rate hike have intensified following the release of August CPI data, which showed a 0.4% month-on-month increase in headline inflation and a 0.3% rise in core CPI, both surpassing forecasts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants now assign nearly a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point rate hike at this week's meeting, scheduled for the early hours of September 17. Additionally, the strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields are compounding the headwinds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching the critical 5% threshold, while the dollar index remains steady near 99.1, persistently pressuring the non-yielding precious metal.

On the supportive side, several factors are providing a floor beneath gold prices. Global central banks continue their aggressive accumulation of the metal, with the People's Bank of China increasing its reserves by approximately 20.22 tonnes in August, marking the 22nd consecutive month of purchases and reinforcing long-term support for prices. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, particularly in the Middle East, where an attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline has prompted its closure, and a scheduled meeting between Iran and Gulf states has been postponed. These developments are generating episodic safe-haven demand that lends intermittent support to gold. Furthermore, exchange-traded funds have demonstrated sustained inflows, with global gold ETFs attracting approximately $18 billion in August and total holdings reaching a record high of 4,189 tonnes.

Where to begin with trading strategy: Attention should be directed toward the key technical levels that are likely to dictate short-term movement. On the upside, resistance is identified at $4,351, followed by $4,378 and the more substantial barrier at $4,400 per ounce. Conversely, support lies at $4,325, with subsequent levels at $4,300 and $4,290 per ounce. For domestic traders, resistance is positioned near the 940 yuan per gram area, while support rests around 930 yuan per gram. Given the prevailing weak-to-sideways momentum, a cautious approach is advisable, with traders monitoring these levels closely for potential breakout or breakdown signals before committing to new positions.