SpaceX closed at 148.15 USD, registering a −2.02 % change.

Block activity reveals a decisively bearish institutional footprint. The largest print was a $45.70 million net-debit put spread using in-the-money strikes, while a separate $12.42 million net-credit call-selling combination collected premium across two expirations. Together, the flow emphasizes downside protection and capped-upside positioning rather than upside chase.

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Options Indicators

SPCX’s implied volatility is 54.68%, and with an IV percentile of 73.46%, current option volatility sits in an elevated range relative to its own recent history, indicating that options are priced expensively rather than cheaply. The IV/HV ratio of 1.29 also suggests implied volatility is running above realized volatility, reinforcing the view that the market is embedding a relatively rich premium into current option prices.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.83.

Large Trades

A put spread package with a net debit of $45.70 million was the largest displayed block, and it reflects a strongly bearish stance into the September 18, 2026 expiration. The structure combined long 205.0 puts and long 200.0 puts, both in the money, against a short 230.0 put that was also in the money, creating a three-leg put spread combination rather than a synthetic structure. Because this same-side put mix includes both bought puts and a sold put, it should be viewed as a spread strategy, and its size is measured by the stated net debit of $45.70 million. Strategically, this is a downside-oriented hedge or directional bearish bet that pays premium upfront to secure protection or profit from weakness, with the long in-the-money put exposure indicating conviction that SPCX could remain under pressure from the current reference price of 148.15.

A calendar-style call spread package with a net credit of $12.42 million was the second displayed large trade, and it points to capped-upside positioning with an income-oriented, mildly bearish to neutral tone. The trader sold 160.0 calls and 180.0 calls expiring October 16, 2026, sold 150.0 calls expiring September 18, 2026, and bought 175.0 calls expiring September 18, 2026, with all legs out of the money versus the 148.15 stock reference. Because the combination includes both bought calls and sold calls, it is best identified as a spread strategy, specifically a cross-expiration call combination, and its size should be expressed by the provided net credit of $12.42 million. The premium intake suggests a premium-collection approach that leans against a sharp rally, implying expectations for subdued upside, range trading, or at least a preference to monetize elevated call premium while keeping upside exposure defined.

Overall, the large-trade flow is clearly bearish. The dominant capital commitment was concentrated in downside put structures, especially the very large net-debit put combination, while the other highlighted trade collected premium through out-of-the-money call selling across expirations, reinforcing the view that traders are not positioning for an aggressive upside breakout. Taken together with the broader block-order imbalance skewing heavily toward bearish exposure, the figures suggest institutional sentiment is defensively positioned and expects weakness or, at best, limited upside in SPCX.

Strategy Reference

In this elevated-IV, bearish-flow environment, income-seeking traders may consider selling the 180.0 call expiring October 16, 2026 to collect rich premium with a lower assignment probability, while defined-risk bearish exposure could be structured with a bear put spread near the 200.0/175.0 strikes instead of posting large margin on outright puts.