Morgan Stanley Joins Goldman Sachs in 11th-Hour Switch to Predict a Fed Hike

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The last remaining big Wall Street holdouts are changing their minds.

Late Monday, Morgan Stanley joined Wall Street rival Goldman Sachs in changing its prediction that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave rates unchanged on Wednesday to predicting the U.S. central bank would hike interest rates.

“We see arguments for both a hike and a hold, but signs of second-round effects from energy prices, strong demand tied to AI-related investment, a neutral rate that is possibly temporarily higher, and concerns about credibility mean the balance of risks now argues for a somewhat more restrictive policy,” said Morgan Stanley economists led by Michael Gapen.

Gapen and team not only think the Fed will hike in September, but have penciled in another quarter-percentage-point hike in December.

“When the Fed goes into action, it rarely moves once. We expect one more hike in December, but the Fed then pauses as inflation moderates,” said the Morgan Stanley economists.

Late on Friday, Goldman Sachs changed their September Fed call to a hike. “We think that the FOMC will want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold when the market is pricing a nearly 90% chance of a hike,” said the Goldman economists. They called subsequent increases “possible,” but not their expectation.

TD Securities was another late mover into the Fed-hike camp.

Early on Tuesday, futures markets were pricing in a 93% chance of a hike, and a 31% chance of a second Fed increase in December, according to LSEG data.

The 2-year Treasury was yielding 4.68%, as the 10-year Treasury was yielding 5.04%.

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