Jefferies Financial Group Set for Record Advisory Quarter, But EPS Impact Limited, UBS Says

MT Newswires Live

Sep 12

Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is on track for its best advisory quarter on record, though the strength will have limited pull-through to earnings amid trading headwinds, UBS said in a note Thursday.

UBS said a large strategic deal that closed in early September is pulling forward advisory revenue into fiscal Q3, lifting its advisory estimate by 23% and implying record results for the franchise. UBS said the pull-forward comes at a cost, leaving the fourth quarter starting at a deficit and tracking well below consensus.

UBS said continued momentum in equity capital markets and equities trading should support results, but headwinds in debt capital markets and fixed-income trading off a low base will limit meaningful improvement in the comp ratio.

The firm kept its neutral rating on the stock but trimmed its price target to $61 from $65.

Price: 52.23, Change: -1.71, Percent Change: -3.16

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