The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0346 GMT - Agricultural commodity exporters could emerge as some of the biggest beneficiaries of a likely strong El Nino this year, says Alexandra  Symeonidi at William Blair. "Thailand and Pakistan could gain from higher rice prices, which have historically followed strong El Nino episodes," she says in a report. Current forecasts point to below-average rainfall across Southeast Asia. A weaker monsoon could weigh on India, which depends heavily on it to support agricultural production. That could reduce India's agricultural output, accelerate food inflation and weigh on growth, while constrained export capacity offers little offset, she says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0238 GMT - Copper rises in Asian trade. Traders are focusing on the Fed's policy decision due later Wednesday, which could lead to a slight decrease in trading activity, Baocheng Futures analysts say in a note. A Fed rate hike is almost a certainty, potentially resulting in a stronger dollar, they note. A stronger greenback weakens the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities such as copper. The three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange is up 0.2% at $14,115.50 a metric ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0154 GMT - Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trade, weighed by high supply and weakening steel demand, Citic Futures analysts write in a note. Shipments and arrivals remain elevated and inventories held up at congested ports have edged higher. Freely negotiated terms for long-term contracts with major Australian miners have also softened. While elevated freight rates could provide some support to prices, iron ore is likely to remain rangebound in the near term. Risks to the downside also include a faster decline in hot-metal output or tighter production controls, they say. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.35% lower at CNY705.5 a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0141 GMT - Larvotto Resources has felt the recent softness in gold slightly more than its peers, says MA Moelis Australia. "This is potentially a function of its status right at the critical point of the development cycle, as well as some anecdotal evidence of the potential of the largest shareholder considering a sell down," it says. But after slipping to a five-month low, the stock's risk-reward is becoming more favorable, MA says. It has a buy rating and A$1.50 target on Larvotto, which owns a gold and antimony mine in Australia. "Our current valuation does not factor in the potential for further exploration success or any opportunity to monetize what appears to be a growing tungsten resource at Hillgrove," it says. Shares are flat at A$1.01. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0104 GMT - RBC's positive view on South32 is reaffirmed by a business update and strategy presentation that highlights the miner's rising exposure to base metals, planned production growth and simplified operating model. "Historically some perceived S32 as overly complicated with too many commodities and assets in different countries," says RBC. The stock was weighed by relatively short mine lives and low margins, as well as significant rehabilitation needs and high emissions intensity. "We believe the recently agreed aluminum transaction and S32's increasing earnings contribution from base metals driven by Hermosa, Sierra Gorda and Cannington life extension significantly transforms S32 and warrants a higher valuation multiple," RBC says. The broker reiterates its outperform rating and A$5.50/share price target on South32. The stock is up 1.2% at A$4.92. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0002 GMT - Gold's descent continues in early Asian trade as expectations of central bank tightening to fight inflation dim the appeal of non-yielding assets. Surging global bond yields are overwhelming the inflation-hedge narrative, says YCC Capital. Gold's next test will be the Fed's decision. Technical indicators suggest momentum may still be tilted down, and gold could retest $4,200, says Trade Nation's David Morrison. But much depends on what happens to the dollar in the coming days. The Fed meeting is the first under Warsh's leadership where a rate change is widely anticipated. "Given the Fed Chair's dislike of forward guidance, it is possible, even if unlikely, that investors get wrong-footed this time," Morrison says. Gold is down 0.2% at $4,284.89 an ounce. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

2037 GMT - Lean hog futures extend losses to three sessions amid a decline in cutout prices, with all cuts lower except ham. "Pork prices are cheap especially compared to beef, but not chicken," Chris Lehner of ADM Investor Services says in a note. Since pork associations pushed it as the "other white meat," many consumers now see it as that, plus they aren't cooking large cuts like loin and hams. "Consumers want fast-cooking meats," he adds. Most-active hogs fall 2.2% to 69.65 cents a pound. Live cattle slip 0.8% to $2.2335 a pound.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

2011 GMT - Natural gas futures post back-to-back gains as summer weather extends well into September, while gains are limited as the season advances and temperatures ease. Still, September heat is above-average and points to higher-than-usual cooling demand through the end of the month, Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. And with this week's storage report expected to show another below-average injection, buyers remain active, he says. Nymex natural gas settles up 0.8% at $2.919/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1958 GMT - Crude futures rise to their highest level in four months as supply worries increase with threats to alternative supply routes out of the Middle East such as the outage of Saudi Arabia's pipeline to the Red Sea. "Bias remains clearly on the upside," Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu says in a note. "The loss of this crucial alternative to the Strait of Hormuz can prolong the market shortfall and delay normalization, while dwindling inventories leave limited capacity to absorb further shocks." WTI settles up 4.4% at $105.83 a barrel and Brent gains 2.9% to $108.75 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1844 GMT - U.S. winter wheat planting at 8% is below the five-year average of 12% for the time of year, which raises concerns about a second consecutive year of low winter wheat production, analysts at Rabobank say in a note. On the bearish side, global inventories are rising amid logistics constraints and increasing stocks in Ukraine and Russia "could lead to a substantial carryover into the next marketing year," they add. December wheat is up 0.8% on CBOT. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1833 GMT - Precious metals futures settle lower in cautious trading ahead of the Fed's interest-rate decision on Wednesday. "Elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions and supply disruptions continued to fuel inflation fears and bolster bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week, keeping the yellow metal exposed to downside risk," Naga market analyst Frank Walbaum says in a note. "A hawkish Fed could further pull gold down, while any soft messaging may ease bets on hikes and help the metal recover." Front month gold slips 0.4% to $4.291.60 a troy ounce and silver settles down 0.4% at $63.236 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1643 GMT - The U.S. exported a record 2.2 billion gallons of ethanol in 2025 worth $4.7 billion, and exports of the biofuel were up 12% in the first half of this year by volume and 21% by value, the USDA says in a report, noting growing global demand and reduced competition from Brazil. A number of wildcards--both positive and negative for U.S. exports--could have an impact the rest of the year, the USDA adds. Brazil could recover export market share if its production outpaces domestic consumption growth. In the U.S., producers can benefit from a tax break they couldn't previously use, although policy changes to increase consumption such as a nationwide E15 mandate could limit exportable supply and push up prices. Demand could rise further as countries respond to higher energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. "Ethanol prices have not spiked like oil and gasoline, giving ethanol an advantage and encouraging higher blending as a method to reduce prices at the pump."