Costco Wholesale's (COST) fiscal Q4 gross margin is likely to face pressure from higher fuel and transportation costs, but tariff refunds and a modest LIFO tailwind could offset the impact, RBC Capital Markets said in a Tuesday note.

The brokerage expects fiscal Q4 revenue to rise 11% and adjusted EPS to reach $6.54. Gross margin is expected at around 11.1% and adjusted operating margin at 3.9%. Consensus calls for revenue growth of 10% and EPS of $6.50.

Costco's fiscal Q4 comparable sales excluding fuel rose 6.7%, led by US comps up 7.2%, according to the note.

The analyst noted key areas to watch include traffic, ticket, inflation, tariff refunds, pricing, membership renewals, fuel margins, transportation costs and potential cash uses, while Costco plans to return to members tariffs passed on to them, depending on refund timing and related litigation.

RBC maintained a sector perform rating on the stock with a $1,000 price target.

Costco Wholesale shares were down 1.1% in Tuesday trading.

Price: 909.09, Change: -9.82, Percent Change: -1.07