GOP senators are making an 11th-hour push to get support from Democrats for the Clarity Act, a crypto bill coming to a vote on Tuesday. Everything will have to go right for the bill to pass.

Republicans late Sunday released updated text for the bill, which among other provisions would take most crypto trading out of the purview of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Critically, the new text included updated ethics requirements for President Donald Trump and other government officials. Trump's own crypto investments have been a primary hang-up in efforts to move the bill forward.

As of Monday morning, key Democrats still had not weighed in on whether the new draft allays their concerns, but investors will find out the bill's fate Tuesday afternoon. That's when Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) has scheduled a vote to move the Clarity Act forward. To avoid a Senate filibuster, the bill needs at least 60 votes, meaning it can't proceed without Democratic support.

The Clarity Act has looked mostly dead for a month, mainly because Trump and Republicans couldn't come to terms with Democrats on how the president's crypto investments should be policed. Trump this year disclosed that he made more than $1 billion from crypto-tied investments in the past 12 months, including from World Liberty Financial, the crypto firm he and his family co-founded.

An earlier draft of the bill put limits on Trump and other government officials' crypto dealings, but said it could only be enforced by Trump's own Justice Department, which Democrats said was a nonstarter. The updated bill includes a role for state attorneys general, a key ask of some Democrats.

The new bill also includes a compromise to address community banks' concerns that customers could pull deposits in favor of high-yield crypto accounts, which had caused some Republicans to waver in their support. To address that issue, the bill would give the Treasury secretary the ability to restrict the yield accounts if such deposit flight is actually observed.

GOP lawmakers portrayed the new bill as a significant concession to Democrats, but there are reasons to doubt it will be enough. One sign is the logistics of the release; successful bipartisan compromises are most often announced in a bipartisan way, but Sunday's announcement was only made by Republican lawmakers.

"This is not a negotiated deal. Democrats are being presented with the final product," wrote TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg in a research note on Monday. Seiberg maintained a 25% chance of the Clarity Act becoming law this year.

Other analysts saw more reason for optimism. Beacon Policy Advisors raised its Clarity Act chances to 30% to 40% from below 10%. A contingent of crypto skeptics such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) have no chance of supporting the bill, leaving its prospects in the hands of moderate Democrats.

If Sunday's concessions had been made a month ago, investors could be optimistic that the Clarity Act was on a glide path to becoming law. But now, lawmakers have put themselves in a position where even a minor setback could scuttle the effort for years.

A main impediment is the clock. House lawmakers are already set to leave later this week for a recess that will last through the November midterm elections. So even if the Senate advances the bill on Tuesday, the House might not take it up until the post-election lame duck session.

Some lawmakers are also calling for the Senate to drop most legislative business in favor of debating legislation on artificial intelligence after AI executives raised concerns late last week that the technology could soon pose an existential threat to humanity.

"Congress should be on an emergency footing in the coming week," said Sen. Brian Schatz (D., Hawaii) in an X post on Sunday. "People are depending on us to take swift bipartisan action that meaningfully reduces AI risk."

It would be a mixed bag for firms such as Coinbase Global if the Clarity Act fails this year. In the long term, Coinbase could be exposed to a renewed crackdown on the crypto industry the next time Democrats are in power, as happened during President Joe Biden's administration. On the other hand, in the short term, leaders of Trump's SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission have made it clear that they plan to implement industry-friendly rules no matter what happens with the legislation.