Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1213 ET - Diesel futures pull back from early highs as President Trump says Ukraine and Russia have agreed to stop attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian drone strikes that have knocked out Russian refining capacity have contributed to global diesel shortages while U.S. exports have been at record highs. "Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian energy targets. Russia has agreed to do likewise!" Trump posted on Truth Social. He adds that the rise in diesel prices is mostly due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and not Iran. Nymex diesel futures are up 0.4% at $4.9771 a gallon. Gasoil futures on ICE Futures Europe are down 1.2% at $1,462 a metric ton. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1129 ET - Livestock futures are mixed with cattle adding to last week's gains and hogs extending their slide. Last week's cattle slaughter fell by 21,000 head but was more than 11,000 above the 2025 Labor Holiday week, AgResource says in a note. And while last week's boxed beef prices were slightly lower, both choice and select values remain well above late-July lows, the firm adds. "September is typically a slow month for the beef market, with seasonal demand developing in October." Live cattle rise 0.3% on CME. Lean hogs are off 2%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1048 ET - Soybeans are picking up after Friday's selloff on the USDA's bigger harvest estimate. While ending stocks are comfortable, "what happens if China would buy more beans from the U.S.? Or what would happen if South America has a little weather issue to cause them to have a smaller crop this year?" Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net says in a note. With funds holding a record long position and harvest starting, prices could consolidate, "but keep a close eye on the weather in South America and also, keep a close eye on the meeting between President Trump and President Xi on Sept. 24," he adds. CBOT soybeans are up 1%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1022 ET - Grains are starting the week with moderate gains following losses in the wake of Friday's WASDE report. Corn futures held up "pretty well" as the USDA showed larger-than-expected production and ending stocks for the U.S. and globally, Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives says in a note. "There is a near-record speculative long position in the market with U.S. harvest ramping up in the coming weeks to provide headwinds," he says. "With supplies not quite as tight as we thought, corn could see a healthy correction in the near-term." CBOT corn is up 0.2%, soybeans rise 0.2% and wheat is 0.6% higher. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0931 ET - The sharp rise in crude oil prices this month casts a cloud over Canada's inflation report for August. Total inflation in August hit 3%, or unchanged from the prior month, and core-CPI readings were also unchanged. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets, says BOC officials "won't take much comfort" from this data because crude oil is trading above $100 a barrel. "Persistently elevated energy prices are likely to be passed through more clearly to consumers in the coming months," Mendes says. He reckons BOC officials could be "forced into action" unless crude-oil prices retreat. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0924 ET - U.S. natural gas futures gain ground as weekend weather forecasts showed summer heat lasting a little longer. "Near-term weather-driven gas demand is strong, with further backing from robust LNG," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. But production remains prolific, keeping winter futures prices subdued, he adds. "Winter contract weakness halted near-term upside early in September and, unless prices move higher, may continue to impede the extent of near-term Nymex upside potential." The Nymex front month is up 1.3% at $2.868/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0903 ET - Treasury yields rise, hovering near multi-year highs, amid expectations the Fed may raise interest rates Wednesday. The conflict in the Middle East pushes oil prices up by nearly 5%, stoking inflation fears. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.5%, as the greenback strengthens 0.9% against the yen and 0.6% versus the euro. The 10-year yield is at 4.985% and could breach 5% for the first time since 2023, on an intraday basis. The benchmark hasn't closed above 5% since 2007. The two-year is at 4.641%, receding after reaching its highest level since July 2024. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0852 ET - Gold futures are lower as the dollar gains amid heightened expectations for a Fed interest-rate increase this week. "The possibility of more interest-rate hikes by major central banks, amid higher oil prices and geopolitical developments, could further support yields and keep gold under strain," Critical Metals CEO Tony Sage says in a note. The Fed meeting is the main event for gold, which could be pulled down by any hawkish signals at the press conference, he says, while "any soft messaging from the Fed may ease tightening bets and help gold recover." Gold for December delivery is down 2% in New York at $4,321.50 a troy ounce. Silver is off 2.7% at $63.40 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0821 ET - Oil futures are extending last week's gains as the outage of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline adds to supply disruptions from the Middle East and Houthis make territorial advances in Yemen. Analysts at Capital Economics say the pipeline outage adds upside to their year-end estimate of $100 a barrel for Brent. "However, we are minded to stick with our existing forecast for now, largely because we simply do not know how long-lasting the damage to affected pumping stations along the East-West pipeline is," they say. "There is a chance that this could prove short-lived." Brent is up 3.4% at $108.12 a barrel and WTI is up 3% at $103.07. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0612 ET - Palm oil rose, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery rising 39 ringgit to 4,853 ringgit a ton. Despite concerns over rising stockpiles and slowing export demand, higher crude oil prices and persistent worries about yields and future production related to El Nino weather conditions may have helped cushion the downside, Kenanga Futures said in a note. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0349 ET - Gold futures trade 1.1% lower at $4,360 a troy ounce in morning trade in Europe as expectations the U.S. will hike interest rates solidify. Higher rates weigh on nonyielding assets like gold. The impact of a rate hike cycle on gold is likely limited compared to historical cycles, ANZ analysts write. This is because the rate hikes are to contain conflict induced inflation, they say. Should the Federal Reserve turn more hawkish due to sustained higher inflation, strong economic activity and AI-linked investments, gold will likely come under more pressure, they say.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0334 ET - London's miners open lower Monday morning as oil prices rise and AI stocks tumble. Friday's U.S. consumer report also solidified expectations the Fed will increase interest rates, which could slow investment and cut demand for mined metals and minerals. Higher oil prices will eat into margins given miners are some of the world's largest consumers of diesel. Copper miner Antofagasta falls 2.4%. Glencore drops 2.01% while BHP's London-listed shares trade 1.7% lower. Rio Tinto's London shares are down 1.6%.

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