Republicans in Tough Races are Tip-Toeing Away from Trump

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

WASHINGTON-Republican candidates in some of the toughest House and Senate races have begun to break from President Trump on central parts of his agenda, a sign of the weight they believe some of his policy stances have placed on their election prospects.

The pushback by these candidates isn't a wholesale rupture with the president. But it is a signal that voters in their states are rejecting elements of his policies on tariffs, the Iran war and data centers, among other issues.

It also puts these GOP candidates at odds with Trump's strategy of making himself the centerpiece of their party's appeal to voters this year, an approach that Trump promoted as recently as Wednesday, at a campaign rally in North Carolina, where he urged voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot just one more time."

Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Roger Marshall of Kansas in recent days have distanced themselves from Trump on tariff policies that they say hurt small businesses and rural communities in Maine and aircraft production in Kansas. In Nebraska, Sen. Pete Ricketts has questioned whether consumers would see lower prices from Trump's decision to temporarily allow more foreign beef imports into the U.S., a move that is opposed by ranchers. All three senators are seeking re-election this year.

In the House, seven Republicans, including a group facing tough re-election races, joined Democrats this week in passing a measure directing Trump to remove U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran, unless Congress authorizes the war. Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, both in competitive races, had sided with the president in previous votes on the war but broke with him this week.

And some Republicans are uneasy with the president's recent comments dismissing calls for tighter federal regulation of artificial intelligence, defending data centers and endorsing Flock Safety cameras. All three of those stances are at odds with the views of many Americans, according to polls and interviews with voters.

Trump's pointed language-he said recently that communities that oppose AI data centers "want to end up being backwards and poor"-has worried GOP strategists, candidates and lawmakers, some of whom have privately complained that he is making an already challenging election harder for Republicans.

"That's not my position," Ohio Sen. Jon Husted said when asked about Trump's view that opposition to data centers would leave communities poor. Husted, as lieutenant governor, supported new data centers in Ohio. His own party's Senate campaign arm now says the issue is "the anchor hanging around Husted's neck" in his election campaign.

On Thursday, Husted failed in an attempt to move legislation through the Senate aimed at protecting consumers from additional costs tied to energy use by data centers. The Republican-led House had overwhelmingly backed companion legislation the day before, with 210 Republicans joining 206 Democrats in support. It was co-sponsored by GOP Rep. Gabe Evans of Colorado, whose race for re-election is rated a tossup by nonpartisan analysts.

The most direct break with Trump in recent days came Thursday, when Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, released a TV ad criticizing the president for immigration enforcement policies that she said had "gone too far" and were driving Hispanic votes from the party.

"The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today," she said, speaking directly to the camera and standing in front of the White House.

Trump's commanding hold on the Republican Party and its voters has been a defining feature of his time in office. His influence was an important factor in this year's primary season, as the president successfully persuaded GOP voters to eject lawmakers from Congress he deemed to be insufficiently loyal to him. In a general election, however, many GOP candidates need centrist and independent voters, especially as voters who are only lightly attached to the Republican Party show signs of low motivation to cast ballots this year.

Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas) said Trump has successfully rallied the base in prior elections, but he termed it a "mistake" for the president to put himself at the center of the midterms.

"I don't see any of that appealing to independents or any disaffected Democrats," Cornyn said. "We'll see if it works." Trump engineered Cornyn's defeat in the Republican primary in Texas by backing challenger Ken Paxton.

The president and his team are projecting confidence that they can defy expectations and deliver an upset this November by turning out Trump's ever-loyal base. They threw a prime-time midterm convention in Texas last week designed to drive enthusiasm among party loyalists, rather than to reach undecided voters.

They have continued making contact with 2024 Trump voters by mail and on television, and they are "cautiously optimistic," as one adviser put it, that the mountains of cash they have amassed and are unleashing across the country will motivate their voters.

The president's advisers point out that polling shows the Democratic Party's image is about as equally tarnished as the Republicans' image. Many GOP political ads are aimed at amplifying negative perceptions of Democrats by portraying the party as out of the mainstream.

Trump has told advisers that he thinks Republicans will benefit from redistricting and the rise of Democratic socialist candidates. Trump's team says he will be out on the campaign trail almost daily in the lead-up to the election.

"There are a good number of Republican voters who are Trump voters first and in some cases only," said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R., N.D.). "His base needs to feel like voting for a Republican majority is voting for him."

"President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress," said White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales in a statement.

Candidates in both parties have said that consumer costs are a central issue in the election. The war with Iran has set off an energy shock that is raising prices for gasoline, diesel and heating oil just weeks before voters head to the polls.

But some of Trump's proposals to cut prices have made GOP lawmakers uneasy. Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for Senate in Iowa, recently called Trump's plan to temporarily lift tariffs on some beef imports "a bad idea." Hinson skipped a campaign stop by Vice President JD Vance on Friday in Council Bluffs, Iowa, because of a scheduling conflict, according to an Iowa Republican familiar with her plans.

Some Republicans have also given a tepid response to the president's proposal to issue $5,000 "dividend" checks to all adult Americans if the GOP retains control of the House and Senate.

Collins, who is the lone Senate Republican seeking re-election in a state won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, said in an interview that the cost of the dividends would be "extraordinarily high."

"The estimates I've seen are $1.2 trillion dollars. So I don't know where that money comes from," said Collins, who is chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Trump has signaled he wants to fund the payments in part through revenue from tariffs, but any such payments would likely be funded by further deficit spending.

Cramer, the North Dakota Republican, said there is a "little anxiety" on Capitol Hill, and that farmers are frustrated with inflation and high energy prices.

"When the decision comes down to, 'Do I vote for a party that hasn't brought prices down as far as I want them? Or the party that's running socialists?' you know it's kind of a race to the bottom," Cramer said. "And the funny thing about the race to the bottom is someone wins."

 

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